| Abstract Scope |
This paper introduces a model that simulates the dynamics of mine opening, closing, and mineral reserve development in response to varying mineral demand and recycling scenarios. The model is applied to real-world mining projects focusing on nickel and lithium, two essential battery materials. As demand for battery minerals surges, mining capacity must expand to meet short- to medium-term needs. However, in a circular economy where battery materials are recycled, primary mineral demand will eventually peak. The analysis investigates how fulfilling this peak demand through mining projects could lead to oversupply in the future, suppressing material prices and hindering the viability of recycling projects. The model simulates supply pathways until 2040 to identify strategies that can support long-term battery material recycling. Ultimately, the analysis identifies optimal mining capacity development pathways that balance the objectives of meeting material demand from clean energy technologies while supporting a circular economy. |